Monsoon Disappears Again: India's Rain Deficit Jumps to 45% as Clouds Vanish

If you were living through a June just a few years or decades ago then you might have already welcomed the sweet earthy scent of regular monsoon rains in India. But we are instead looking at cracked earth and unusually bare skies this year. 

The Kerala coast received the southwest monsoon on June 4, 2026. And we were soon to become optimistic about a promising monsoon ahead which has now dramatically slipped into a prolonged pause. 

But according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) the collective national rainfall in India between June 4 and June 28, 2026 has reached a mere 77.1 mm against the normal benchmark of 141.4mm.

It means that this monsoon season India will experience a 45% rainfall deficit which is a serious concern not just for the urban population but also for farmers nationwide. 

Why has the Southwest Monsoon Stalled in India? 

Meteorologists reveal that the current dry spell is not a random occurrence for us. Their monsoon tracking system notes that it is a result of a rare combination of five different atmospheric conditions directly affecting Indian rainfall. 

Normally warm air lifts moisture high into the sky to form rain clouds. But right now a strong misplaced wind current which meteorologist refer to as the westerly jet stream is pushing down from the north. 

This act like a heat dome (like a lid) that traps moisture close to the ground. Practically the trapped moisture kills the cloud even before they can grow. 

Then there is the absence of a supply line. Usually the monsoon relies on a powerful wind current we know as Somali Jet. It’s a carrier responsible for delivering moisture across the Arabian Sea to India which is also very weak this year. 

Another contributing factor in a rainfall deficit is missing global weather wave called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It used to travel across the ocean and then mark the beginning of rainfalls in India. Right now it has also drifted away into a weak phase. 

Whereas the strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is also warming up nearby waters to make matters worse. All of these factors combined together are making the Indian Ocean’s natural backup system completely neutral and silent. 

State-wise List of Monsoon Crisis in India in June 2026

You can further note the impact of all the above mentioned atmospheric conditions on rainfall crisis across different Indian states in the table below: 

The critical question moving into July this year is whether the skies are going to be kind and relieve Indians from the current heatwaves or not. 

The IMD has revised its seasonal expectation to a below-normal 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). They have further warned against an overall 60% probability of a deficient monsoon season. 

Weather Warning for 27th June, 2026#SouthwestMonsoon #WeatherUpdate #RainfallForecast #HeatWave #IndiaWeather #Monsoon2026 #ThunderstormAlert #HeavyRain #WeatherWarnings@moesgoi @airnewsalerts @DDNational @ndmaindia @ICRER_MHA pic.twitter.com/aXcwpzaQE9

— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) June 27, 2026

However, hope is still forming on the horizon. Weather models indicate a large tropical system is currently building in the eastern Indian Ocean. 

Forecasters expect this system to move into the Bay of Bengal over the next few days potentially injecting fresh tropical moisture to restart the stalled circulation and bring much-needed relief to Northwest India by early July.