The Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 have reached a fever pitch, evolving from a traditional two-way Dravidian duel into a complex multi-cornered battle. With the entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) and the growing presence of the NTK and BJP, the political landscape of the state is facing its most significant shift in decades.
Tamil Nadu Election Results 2026 counting will begin at 8:00 am on May 4, 2026.
Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026 Results: Pollster Seat Projections
The following data represents the initial projections released by major agencies following the conclusion of the final phase of voting on April 29, 2026. The magic number to form a government in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly is 118.
Pollster / Agency | DMK+INC | AIADMK+ NDA | TVK (Vijay) | Others/NTK |
| Matrize | 122-132 | 87-110 | 10-18 | 00 |
| P-Marq | 125-145 | 65-85 | 16-26 | 00 |
| Peoples Pulse | 125-145 | 65-80 | 20-30 | 00 |
| Axis My India | 92-100 | 22-32 | 98-120 | 00 |
| Poll of Polls (Avg) | ||||
| Chanakya Strategies | 145-160 | 50-65 | 18-26 |
Also Check: Exit Polls 2026: Close Call for BJP in West Bengal, Assam back with NDA, No Change in Tamil Nadu and Kerelam
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2021 — Pollster Predictions vs Final Results
The 2021 elections saw the DMK-led alliance return to power after a decade. While most pollsters correctly predicted a DMK victory, the margin of the AIADMK’s resilience surprised many.
| Pollster | DMK+ (Predicted) | AIADMK+ (Predicted) | Others | Actual Result 2021 |
| Axis My India | 175–195 | 38–54 | 0–3 | DMK+: 159 |
| Today’s Chanakya | 164–186 | 46–68 | 0–5 | AIADMK+: 75 |
| CNX | 160–170 | 58–68 | 4–6 | Others: 0 |
| C-Voter | 160–172 | 58–70 | 0–5 | |
| Poll of Polls | 172 | 58 | 4 |
Tamil Nadu Election Results - Seat Comparison: 2016 vs 2021 vs 2026
The 2026 election is unique due to the arrival of TVK, which internal surveys suggest could disrupt the seat shares of both major alliances.
| Party/Alliance | Seats 2016 | Seats 2021 | Seats 2026 |
| DMK+ | 98 | 159 | Awaited |
| AIADMK+ | 134 | 75 | Awaited |
| TVK (Vijay) | — | — | Awaited |
| Others (BJP/NTK/PMK) | 2 | 0 | Awaited |
Vote Share Comparison: 2016 vs 2021 vs 2026
A record-breaking 85.15% voter turnout in 2026 has sent political analysts into a frenzy. Early indicators suggest a massive shift in vote share toward "Third Force" parties.
| Party | Vote Share 2016 | Vote Share 2021 | Vote Share 2026 |
| DMK | 31.39% | 37.7% | Awaited |
| AIADMK | 40.77% | 33.29% | Awaited |
| TVK | — | — | Awaited (Est. 20%+) |
| BJP | 2.84% | 2.62% | Awaited |
| NTK | 1.07% | 6.58% | Awaited |
Also Check: Kerala Exit Polls 2026: LDF vs UDF vs NDA, What Top Pollsters Say
