Stargazers are in for a treat as the aurora borealis forecast shifts into high gear tonight, Friday, January 2, 2026. Following a powerful M7.1 solar flare and subsequent coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted on New Year's Eve.
The northern lights aurora borealis forecast for the first week of January 2026 indicates that the most intense solar particles are slated to arrive during the overnight hours. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm watch.
This means that the aurora oval could move a lot farther south than it usually does. For enthusiasts in the northern United States, tonight represents one of the strongest opportunities of 2026 so far to witness the dancing green and purple lights of the solar maximum.
Aurora Borealis Northern Lights Forecast for Jan 1- 4, 2026
The current 3-day aurora forecast highlights a specific window of opportunity as the Earth interacts with the incoming solar wind. While New Year's Day saw the initial arrival of solar energy, the bulk of the CME impact is anticipated through early Saturday.
-
Tonight (Friday, Jan 2): Conditions are expected to escalate to G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) levels. The Kp index, a measure of geomagnetic activity, is projected to hit 5.0 to 6.0.
-
Tomorrow (Saturday, Jan 3): Residual activity will remain high in the early morning hours (03:00 to 09:00 UTC), making pre-dawn viewing ideal.
-
Day after tomorrow (Sunday, Jan 4): The storm is expected to wane, with the geomagnetic storm forecast returning to quiet or unsettled levels (Kp 2-3).
G1 to G2 watches (Minor to Moderate): CMEs are anticipated to affect Earth and lead to increased geomagnetic activity at the dawn of 2026: Jan 01-03. pic.twitter.com/gOF8yuYrCe
— NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (@NWSSWPC) December 31, 2025
Where to See Northern Lights Tonight in the U.S.?
With a G2 storm watch in effect, the northern lights tonight may be visible from the horizon in several states. According to the experimental NOAA Aurora Viewline, visibility is divided into the following probability zones:
| Northern Lights Visibility Level | Likely States/Regions |
| High Probability | Alaska, Northern Minnesota, North Dakota, Upper Michigan |
| Moderate (Horizon) | Washington, Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Maine |
| Low/Slight Chance | Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, New York, Vermont |
Also Read - Northern Lights vs Southern Lights: What’re the Key Differences?
What is the Kp Index and Geomagnetic Storms?
The success of your northern lights aurora borealis forecast depends heavily on the Kp index. Tonight's predicted Kp 6 is the threshold where the aurora typically becomes capturable on cameras across the mid-latitudes of the U.S.
-
G1 Storm (Kp 5): Aurora is usually visible in the high-tier states listed above.
-
G2 Storm (Kp 6): The lights move further south; residents in states like New York and South Dakota should keep a close watch.
Note that the best window is typically between 10:00 PM and 2:00 AM local time. Avoid the full moon and urban light pollution for the best contrast.
The surge in activity is a direct result of the 11-year solar cycle peaking in 2026. This means even if clouds block your view tonight, the frequency of these 3-day aurora forecasts is expected to remain high throughout the winter
Check Out - When does Winter Start and End in the U.S. in 2025?
As the CME impact unfolds, tonight offers a premier window for the aurora borealis forecast across the northern tier of the U.S. With a G2 watch active through January 3, stay tuned to real-time Kp updates from NOAA and find a dark sky location to catch the first major light show of 2026.
Comments
All Comments (0)
Join the conversation